(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
A quieter session in Asia with Tokyo on holiday, but South Korea and Taiwan still managed to notch fresh all-time highs amid the love affair with all things AI.
The latest tryst being Nvidia’s intent to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI with the first data centre gear to be delivered in the second half of 2026.
Analysts’ opinion seems rather mixed on this with bulls seeing it as OpenAI acknowledging there is no alternative to Nvidia GPUs, but others wondering why Nvidia is funding a customer to buy its equipment.
There’s a lot of interest in whether the flash PMIs for September out today will continue to show resilience in the face of U.S. tariffs. The Australian numbers were disappointing, but don’t have a good correlation with growth there.
The EU are seen holding above 50.0, albeit not by much, while the U.S. versions are seen pulling back a little but still in positive territory.
The main event later will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell who gets to speak on the economic outlook and takes questions on policy – that’s at 1235 EDT/1635 GMT.
Markets remain doggedly dovish despite mixed messaging from the Fed itself. Speaking on Monday, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, hand picked by President Trump, argued for big cuts, but three of his colleagues sounded cautious on inflation.
Futures imply around a 90% chance of a further quarter-point rate cut in October, and a 75% probability of an easing in December as well.
As an added wrinkle, the clock is also ticking to a possible U.S. government shutdown on September 30, with President Trump due to meet top Democratic leaders on Thursday.
Investors have assumed some sort of an extension would get hashed out, but the deadlock in the Senate seems real this time. Which raises the risk of a shutdown that would be especially badly timed for markets and the Fed.
As analysts at Nomura noted, when the government shuts so do its data releases. If the standoff was protracted, reports on payrolls, CPI, retail sales etc might go missing in action for the Fed’s October 29 and December 10 meetings, leaving them flying blind on policy.
Finally, Disney’s decision to reinstate Jimmy Kimmel is an example of the power of consumer boycotts in an online world.
Even a glance at social media sites will show how many people were cancelling their subscriptions, holidays, time shares, even their Disney weddings. Another headache for company boards.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
– Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, appearances by Fed Vice Chair Bowman speaks and Fed Bank of Atlanta President Bostic
– Riksbank monetary policy decision, media conference
– Appearances by ECB Board Member Cipollone, Bank of England Chief Economist Pill, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem
– Sept PMIs from Asia, Europe and US. US Treasury auctions $69bn of 2yr Notes
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes)
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