A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter: Hope you’ve had your coffee. We have a lot to get through.
The next 72 hours will see traders run a gauntlet of risk events that features central bank decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada and Bank of Japan, corporate earnings, and culminates in U.S. President Donald Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline.
Markets are displaying cautious optimism ahead of the data deluge and after trade talks between the U.S. and China ended on an upbeat note – though without any substantive agreement.
Asian stocks are pushing higher, led by gains in Korea, while the Shanghai Composite is on track to enter a technical bull market, up 20% from a low in April.
Elsewhere, a powerful magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck Russia’s Far Eastern Kamchatka Peninsula – the strongest to hit the region in more than seven decades – prompting warnings and evacuations stretching across the Pacific Ocean as far as California.
Some safe haven currencies rallied after the news, with the Japanese yen as much as 0.4% stronger and the Swiss franc appreciating up to 0.3%.
The euro is 0.2% firmer against the dollar, recovering some ground as the European single currency closes in on its first monthly loss of this year as markets weigh up the EU’s trade deal with the U.S..
Traders are also braced for a slew of corporate earnings, including from tech megacaps Microsoft and Meta and European stocks, including UBS Group and GSK.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting later on Wednesday, though it could see a rare dissent by some central bank officials in favour of lower borrowing costs.
And ahead of Trump’s deadline to reach a deal to avert the imposition of “Liberation Day” tariffs, some countries’ talks with the U.S. – including China, India and South Korea – look set to go down to the wire. Buckle up.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: European earnings: UBS Group, Banco Santander, GSK, Telefonica US earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm, ARM, Ford French: Consumer spending for June and preliminary GDP for Q2 German: Retail sales for June, GDP flash for Q2 Euro zone: GDP flash for Q2 UK: 27-year government debt auction US: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, GDP growth rate for Q2 Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
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(By Gregor Stuart Hunter)
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