MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s annual inflation rate likely slid to its lowest level in four years in January, a Reuters poll of analysts predicted on Thursday, boosting bets the central bank will continue to lower borrowing costs.
The median forecast from 14 analysts estimated that the annual headline rate likely dropped to 3.61% in the first month of the year, which would mark its third consecutive month of cooling inflation and its lowest level since early 2021.
Core inflation, which strips out especially volatile food and energy prices, likely ticked up to 3.70% in January, according to the poll, compared to 3.65% in the previous month.
In December, Mexico’s central bank announced its fifth interest rate cut last year with a 25-basis-point reduction to the key lending rate, taking it to 10.00%. At the time, the bank’s board noted that further and larger cuts could be considered in the future.
The bank’s next rate decision will be released later on Thursday. A separate Reuters poll of economists showed a consensus expecting a 50-basis-point cut.
Monthly inflation in January likely edged up 0.31% compared to prices in December, according to the Reuters poll, while the monthly core rate was seen up by 0.45%.
Mexico’s official statistics institute INEGI will release January’s consumer price data on Friday.
(Reporting by Noe Torres, Editing by William Maclean)
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